Bet Black College Football
Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, David M. Hale and Seth Walder provide their best bets for some of this season's bowl games. More games will be added as bowls approach.
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Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Completed games
Capital One Orange Bowl
No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-8.5, 65) vs. No. 13 North Carolina Tar Heels
Final: Texas A&M 41, North Carolina 27
(at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida)
Hale: The typical SEC narrative for any bowl that's not a playoff game is an easy one: We don't really care. In fact, Dan Mullen made that explicit after getting blown out by Oklahoma. But for Texas A&M, this one's a little different. There's a point to prove here, that the committee got it wrong, that the Aggies deserved a shot at the big one and that we all missed out on a better semifinal than the Rose Bowl provided. The point isn't that any of that is true so much as Jimbo Fisher is no doubt ensuring his team believes it.
North Carolina, meanwhile, looks more like the SEC-type squad with opt-outs galore, including star receiver Dyami Brown, top tailbacks Javonte Williams and Michael Carter and linebacker Chazz Surratt. The Heels can still rely on QB Sam Howell, who is exceptional, but he can't do it alone. And Surratt's loss on defense leaves a gaping hole against one of the most physical offensive fronts in college football.
If you're a bit intimidated by the big number -- UNC has lost just one game by eight or more under Mack Brown -- the first-half spread of A&M (-5.5) is a strong play, too, as the Heels have made a habit of slow starts (vs. Syracuse, Florida State, Virginia and Wake Forest, to name a few).
Pick: Texas A&M -8.5
Outback Bowl
Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers (-9, 67.5)
(at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida)
Final: Ole Miss 26, Indiana 20
Kezirian: I love everything about Indiana and what the Hoosiers have accomplished this season. Tom Allen will this team ready to rock. However, this number is way too high for me to fade an explosive Ole Miss offense. The Rebels have a terrible defense and there will be Hoosiers wideouts running wide open often, but Lane Kiffin will be able to match the points.
Pick: Ole Miss +9
CFP Semifinal: Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One
No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-19.5, 65.5)
Final: Alabama 31, Notre Dame 14
Kezirian: It takes a strong stomach to fade Alabama, but if I am going to do it, I need a lot of points and a solid team. That's what I have with the Irish. They were dismantled by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, but I am viewing that as an atypical performance. Notre Dame still has a quality offense, and the defense is good enough to force a punt or two before halftime. I say that because Bama's offense is just that good. The fourth quarter is certainly a significant element, because if Nick Saban has a comfortable lead, he will look to grind clock and preserve his players' health for the national title game. We saw a similar situation two years ago when the Tide jumped out on Oklahoma 28-0 and entered halftime with a 31-10 lead. Bama scored only 14 more points. The backdoor will be wide open, but I also think Notre Dame has the horses to hang around the entire way.
Pick: Notre Dame +19.5
CFP Semifinal: Allstate Sugar Bowl
No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers (-7.5, 66.5)
Final: Ohio State 49, Clemson 28
Walder: Believe it or not, FPI makes this game a true coin-flip. Seriously, it's 50-50. That represents a large difference from the market in the national semifinal. So what's going on?
I think it basically comes down to the question of, is 11 games of high performance a better predictor of future success than six games of high performance? And FPI's answer is, not necessarily!
Despite Ohio State's underperformance in the Big Ten championship game -- while missing 22 players, which is worth noting -- and Clemson's dominance in its conference championship victory, the Buckeyes actually outpaced the Tigers (barely) in opponent-adjusted efficiency over the course of their seasons. While Clemson demonstrated that high level of play for longer, Ohio State's play has basically been right in line with its preseason prior. In other words, we thought Ohio State and Clemson were equally excellent in the preseason, and they have played at equally excellent levels since. Why wouldn't we think they are still equally excellent? Justin Fields, by the way, ranks third in QBR this season while Trevor Lawrence ranks eighth.
There is a fair counter to all of this, I will note -- Lawrence's two-game absence. That's something the model is unaware of, and it likely means that it is underrating Clemson by a little bit because it treats those games like any other. That, I'd guess, might explain a point or two of difference between us and the market, but not a full 7.5.
Pick: Ohio State +7.5
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs (-7, 50)
Final: Georgia 24, Cincinnati 21
Kezirian: We have seen these types of bowl matchups in recent years. One team has a chip on its shoulder, and another team essentially goes through the motions. The Bearcats are undefeated and feel snubbed by the CFP committee. Here is their chance to demonstrate their worth against an SEC opponent. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have seen some key players decide to miss the game, opting to focus on the NFL draft. UC has a solid defense, and I believe the stark contrast in desire will keep this within the number.
Pick: Cincinnati +7
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Auburn Tigers vs. No. 14 Northwestern Wildcats (-3.5, 43.5)
Final: Northwestern 35, Auburn 19
Walder: There's no question that Northwestern has played better this season. The Wildcats rank 16th in total efficiency -- which is expected points added per play adjusted for quality of opponent and garbage time -- while the Tigers sit 30th. And Northwestern's best unit is its defense, which is the most predictive of future success. So why does FPI not only like Auburn against the spread, but straight up? The prior.
Here's the thing: The preseason prior is extra important this year. Normally come bowl season we'd have 12 or 13 games of information on each of these teams. But because they've played only 10 and eight games, respectively, the prior hasn't decayed as much. And rightfully so! It's fair to hold the skepticism of Northwestern you might have for its ninth game now, which is why FPI now prefers Auburn -- which it thought was the eighth-best team in the preseason.
Pick: Auburn +3.5
Offerpad Arizona Bowl
Ball State Cardinals vs. No. 22 San Jose State Spartans (-9.5, 64)
Final: Ball State 34, San Jose State 13
Connelly: SJSU was one of the happiest stories of the fall, and the odds are pretty good that the Spartans will win the Arizona Bowl and finish unbeaten. But 9.5 points is a significant advantage considering both how one-dimensional their offense is (they can't run) and how efficient Ball State's offense is.
Granted, the Cardinals will be without running back Caleb Huntley, but backup Tye Evans is tough to bring down (he averages more yards after contact than Huntley), and quarterback Drew Plitt pilots one of the better quick-hitting passing games SJSU has seen. Receiver Justin Hall takes short passes long distances, and while BSU is a deserving underdog, SP+ projects a 6-point advantage for SJSU, not 9.5.
Pick: Ball State +9.5
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-7, 51.5)
Final: Wisconsin 42, Wake Forest 28
Hale: There was no more consistently overrated team this year than Wisconsin -- both by the pollsters and the bettors. After opening the year 2-0 with wins over Illinois and (as it turned out) a woeful Michigan, the supposedly strong Wisconsin offense evaporated, failing to top 7 points in three straight losses before narrowly avoiding an upset at home against Minnesota. After completing 20-of-21 passes in the opener, Graham Mertz has been awful, completing just 56% of his throws and averaging 5.5 yards per pass. He hasn't thrown a TD in his last three games. Overall, Wisconsin has gone four straight without a cover (all by at least a TD).
On the flip side, Wake Forest has consistently been among the most undervalued teams this season, finishing the regular season 6-2 against the spread, including a 3-0 mark as an underdog. Wake is 3-1 in bowl games under Dave Clawson, too, with the lone loss coming in a one-possession game against Michigan State last year. In fact, the Deacons have just four drives total in their last four bowl games in which they trailed by 8 or more. Wake also had its senior day swiped at the last minute with Florida State's cancellation of their scheduled Dec. 18 matchup, which has turned the bowl game into something legitimately meaningful for the team.
All of that adds up to what could easily be an outright Wake win, and a game we're happy to take the points.
Pick: Wake Forest +7
Best Black College Football Teams
Connelly: Both the stats and eyeballs have had trouble figuring out Wisconsin. The Badgers looked like national-title contenders in their first two games of the season then scored a total of 20 points in their next three. Because SP+ liked UW so much in the preseason projections, it still thinks pretty highly of them and gives them a 14.5-point advantage in this one.
Wake was on a run of overachievement for a while, winning four straight then narrowly losing to UNC. But the Deacs have played only one game since Nov. 14 -- a 24-point drubbing of a loss at Louisville -- and in the end, there's only one reliably good unit in this game: Wisconsin's defense. Even if the Badgers don't win by 14+, we'll say the D alone makes them likely to win by more than a touchdown.
Pick: Wisconsin -7
New Mexico Bowl
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs. Houston Cougars (-11, 59.5)
Final: Hawaii 28, Houston 14
Connelly: Call this partiallys a little ambitious for Hawaii, but of its past six games, four have at least hit 59, and two have hit 72. Houston games have gone over 59.5 four of seven times as well, with two more hitting at least 57. So there's a little bit of value there.
3. A Houston-Hawaii matchup deserves nothing less. The last time these teams played was in the 2003 Hawaii Bowl -- Hawaii won 54-48 in a triple-overtime clash that featured nearly 1,200 yards, then the teams followed up with a pretty spectacular postgame brawl. College football is nothing without its history, and Hawaii-Houston games should always be prolific. And feisty.
Pick: Over 59.5
Montgomery Bowl
Memphis Tigers (-9.5, 52) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls
Final: Memphis 25, Florida Atlantic 10
Hale: Does Memphis care all that much about this game? Will its up-and-down offense actually perform? Good questions, and ones we'll likely be dealing with for plenty of teams during this unpredictable bowl season. The margin between the American, where Memphis is one of the better programs, and Conference USA, where Florida Atlantic lost its past two and failed to beat a team with a winning record, is massive. If Memphis has any appetite to actually play, the Tigers should win in a rout.
Pick: Memphis -9.5
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Georgia Southern Eagles (-4.5, 51)
Final: Georgia Southern 38, Louisiana Tech 3
Connelly: Louisiana Tech pulled off a couple of the least likely wins of 2020. Based on the stats each game produced, the Bulldogs' victories over Southern Miss (31-30 in Week 3) and UAB (37-34 in Week 9) each produced postgame win expectancies of 10% or less. They therefore managed a 5-4 record despite a No. 112 SP+ ranking and a stat profile that suggested something closer to 3-6. They might have more magic left in them, but I wouldn't count on it.
Georgia Southern, meanwhile? A legit 7-5 in one of the best iterations ever of the Sun Belt. The Eagles were hilariously inconsistent, nearly losing to FCS' Campbell and falling to rival Georgia State, but giving Louisiana and Appalachian State all sorts of trouble and pummeling Florida Atlantic. On average they were quite superior to Louisiana Tech, and SP+ gives them a projected 11.3-point advantage.
Pick: Georgia Southern -4.5
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Appalachian State Mountaineers (-19.5, 62.5) vs. North Texas Mean Green
Final: Appalachian State 56, North Texas 28
Kezirian: The North Texas defense is a special kind of bad, ranked 20th worst in FBS, allowing 6.4 yards per play. The Mean Green surrendered at least 35 points against all but one of their eight FBS opponents. Rice was the only one they held in check, and the Owls are pretty poor. Now North Texas faces a solid Appalachian State squad. Two of the Mountaineers' three losses came against ranked opponents.
I will tread lightly but also bank on a track meet here. After all, no one wants to root for an under in the opening game of bowl season.
Pick: Over 62.5
Hale: Appalachian State's offense has never quite clicked this year, but its defense has been impressive, with Coastal Carolina the only opponent topping 30 points. North Texas, meanwhile, ranks 94th in offensive efficiency and played just one team in the top 80 in defensive efficiency. That was Rice, and North Texas didn't exactly look great, winning 27-17. The Mean Green would be lucky to find the end zone twice in this one, so I'm essentially betting they can hold the Mountaineers to less than 50.
Pick: Under 62.5
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
UCF Knights vs. No. 16 BYU Cougars (-4.5, 70.5)
Final: BYU 49, UCF 23
Connelly: UCF has had some severe swings in close-game fortune in recent years. The Knights went 5-0 in one-score games during their 25-game winning streak in 2017-18 but have lost seven of eight such games since. Since SP+ doesn't punish you all that much for tight losses, their ratings haven't really changed in recent years. They're a good team, and if the College Football Playoff committee punished Cincinnati for beating them by only three in Orlando, Florida, that's totally unjustifiable.
SP+ still favors BYU by 9.1, though, because BYU is awesome. Granted, UCF has far fewer miles to travel, but even if you give the Knights an extra point for home-field adjustments, that's a decent enough cushion to take the Cougars.
Pick: BYU -4.5
Johnson: UCF had as many as 17 opt-outs by October and has had more since. Among the more recent is wide receiver Marlon Williams, who led the team in receptions (71), yards (1,039) and touchdowns (10). BYU will be at or near full strength, including future NFL draft pick Zach Wilson. Wilson leads a Cougars offense that ranks top five in both EPA and success rate, and I think we'll see more of the same against a young and depleted UCF defense ranked outside the top 40 in both metrics.
Pick: BYU -4.5
Kezirian: Let's make it a trifecta. Not much more to add to what Bill and Preston provided. The Knights who do show up will presumably play hard, but I think it's silly to fade this BYU offense. I can understand passing on this game, but if I am going to play it, I am riding with Wilson and the Cougars.
Pick: BYU -4.5
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
No. 19 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-14, 56.5) vs. UTSA Roadrunners, 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (on ABC)
Bet Black College Football
Final:Louisiana 31, UTSA 24
Hale: Two good defenses. Two mixed bags on offense. Combined, UTSA and Louisiana have gone under the number in 15 of 21 games this year. Against winning opponents, the Ragin' Cajuns' average game total was 49 points, and UTSA's was just 41 (the Roadrunners scored just 16 points per game vs. winning teams). Bowl season can be a different beast, with teams perhaps less enthusiastic about playing smashmouth defense with the offseason at hand, but this total still seems a touch high, making the under a wise bet.
Pick: Under 56.5
LendingTree Bowl
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia State Panthers (-3.5, 50.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (on ESPN)
Final: Georgia State 39, Western Kentucky 21
Hale: In a bowl season where little is certain, one thing we feel good about is the overall weakness of Conference USA. Believe it or not, the longest active win streak in the league belongs to Western Kentucky (three), but those wins came against teams that finished a combined 4-16 against FBS opposition. Western Kentucky's offense has been virtually nonexistent throughout the season, and while Georgia State hasn't exactly moved the ball with ease either, the Panthers are a far better team with solid wins over Troy and Georgia Southern and close losses to both Louisiana and App State. WKU's biggest strength is its pass rush, but Georgia State allowed just 11 sacks in nine games this season. I'd have pegged this spread at closer to a touchdown, so I'm happy to lay the 3.5.
Pick: Georgia State -3.5
Connelly: Despite the Sun Belt's solid nonconference showing and Conference USA's weakness, SP+ still sees WKU as slightly superior -- the Hilltoppers are 81st, and GSU's 86th. Both teams finished well, with Georgia State winning three of four and WKU winning three straight, but the two teams have played only one combined game in December, so we'll see how well that form carries over.
The difference could be determined by how much WKU's defensive strength matters. The Hilltoppers are driven primarily by excellent pass defense (17th in passing success rate allowed, seventh in completion rate allowed), which is fine except for the fact that Georgia State doesn't really want to pass. The Panthers are going to feed backs Destin Coates and Tucker Gregg the ball as much as possible, and quarterback Cornelious Brown is going to be involved, too. If GSU were actually particularly good at running the ball, I would lean its way. But in what could be a punt-fest, give me the team that defends better.
Pick: WKU +3.5
Best Black College Football Teams
FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl
Liberty Flames vs. No. 12 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-7.5, 59.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (on ESPN)
Final: Liberty 37, Coastal Carolina 34
Kezirian: I am all for giving Coastal Carolina proper recognition for its undefeated season, but while the Chants became media darlings, Liberty flew under the radar. The Flames beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, and a one-point loss at North Carolina State is the only blemish on their record. Liberty's defense ranks better in some key categories, and the Flamers are a live 'dog here -- 7.5 points is just way too many for a game that should be close.
Pick: Liberty +7.5