Tulsa Cincinnati Pick
Dec 19, 2020 Over/Under Pick. We mentioned Tulsa's terrific stop-unit, but Cincinnati has been even more dominant on the defensive side of the ball. Led by linebacker Jarrell White, the Bearcats are holding.
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The Tulsa visits Cincinnati on 12/19/2020 at 8:00PM.
- Dec 19, 2020 Tulsa has looked terrific at times and are going to be fired up to be in this spot as well. They will have to earn the championship against a very dangerous Cincinnati team in their own backyard. Head below for our free Tulsa vs. Cincinnati pick for December 19, 2020. Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Cincinnati Bearcats AAC Championship Betting Odds.
- Jan 08, 2020 The Tulsa Golden Hurricane travel to Fifth Third Arena to play the Cincinnati Bearcats on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The opening line for this matchup has Cincinnati as 8.5 point favorites.
Tulsa and Cincinnati face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Tulsa has a record of 6-1 this season. Cincinnati is 8-0 this season. Both have players to meet and know.
Tulsa Team Defense Preview
Tulsa has had 90 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.17 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Tulsa is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Tulsa opponents pass the football 46.45% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.
Tulsa opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.53 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.
Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Tulsa is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.
Tulsa Team Offense Preview
Tulsa has had 90 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.36 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Tulsa is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Tulsa passes the football 48.34% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.
Tulsa is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.83 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.
Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Tulsa Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Tulsa is a better passing team than running team this season.
Cincinnati Team Defense Preview
Cincinnati has had 84 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.54 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 54.41% of their opponents’ play calls.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.
Cincinnati is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Cincinnati can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.51 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.
Cincinnati has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Cincinnati has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.
Tulsa Cincinnati Picks And Parlays
Cincinnati Team Offense Preview
Cincinnati has had 85 total drives this season and they generate 5.46 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Cincinnati has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Cincinnati passes the football 45.26% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.
Cincinnati is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Cincinnati can take credit for 2.93 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.
Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Cincinnati this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Cincinnati is a better passing team than running team this season.
The Tulsa Roster
The Players to Watch for Tulsa
Zach Smith QB 6-3 227
This season, Zach Smith has put up 1435 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has thrown 6 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 135.2thus far this season. Zach Smith has thrown 6 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Zach Smith has -42.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 5.11 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 23.0 times this season, which puts him in the 57.06 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.
Deneric Prince RB 6-1 214
This season, Deneric Prince has 356 rushing yards on 70 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Deneric Prince picked up 11 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 1 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.
Keylon Stokes WR 6-0 194
This season, Keylon Stokes picked up 508 yards. He caught the ball 35 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.
Jaxon Player DL 6-0 290.0
The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Tulsa, Jaxon Player has 28 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 95.13 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 88.81 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.
Kendarin Ray S 6-4 200.0
He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Tulsa, Kendarin Ray had 51 tackles which puts him in the 94.06 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 70.2 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Kendarin Ray as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.12 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.
Allie Green IV CB 6-3 206
Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Tulsa, Allie Green IV had 21 tackles which puts him in the 72.47 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 75.14 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Allie Green IV as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 80.48 percentile among Corners this season.
The Cincinnati Roster
The Players to Watch for Cincinnati
Desmond Ridder QB 6-4 215
This season, Desmond Ridder has put up 1821 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has thrown 6 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 156.6thus far this season. Desmond Ridder has thrown 6 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Desmond Ridder has 526.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 97.75 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 67.0 times this season, which puts him in the 87.69 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 11.0 rushing touchdowns this season.
Gerrid Doaks RB 6-0 230
This season, Gerrid Doaks has 660 rushing yards on 137 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Gerrid Doaks picked up 202 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 14 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.
Jayson Jackson WR 5-10 175
This season, Jayson Jackson picked up 297 yards. He caught the ball 20 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.
Curtis Brooks DT 6-2 295
The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Cincinnati, Curtis Brooks has 23 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 68.64 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 88.38 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.
Myjai Sanders DE 6-5 258.0
The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Cincinnati, Myjai Sanders has 27 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 95.13 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 5 times this season, which put him in the 96.08 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.
James Wiggins S 6-0 205.0
He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Cincinnati, James Wiggins had 31 tackles which puts him in the 77.89 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 70.2 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 1 times this season. James Wiggins as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 82.83 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.
Coby Bryant CB 6-1 198
Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Cincinnati, Coby Bryant had 28 tackles which puts him in the 86.66 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 75.14 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Coby Bryant as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes this season, which puts him in the 97.47 percentile among Corners this season.
Tulsa vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Picks, and Odds
Prediction: Tulsa 16 Cincinnati 28
Spread Pick: Tulsa +14.5 -105 5Dimes
Moneyline Pick: Cincinnati -559 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Under 47 -110 Bovada
- December 19, 2020
- ByJonathan Willis
- VegasInsider.com
The Cincinnati Bearcats have been yanked around by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee for the last couple weeks.
Cincinnati has fallen behind two different two-loss teams with inferior records, casting a serious shadow over college football’s decision makers.
All head coach Luke Fickell and the Bearcats can do is continue to win games though, and they can at least ensure a spot in a New Year’s Six Bowl with a win over the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in primetime on Saturday.
AAC Championship Betting Resources
- Week 16 Matchup: AAC Championship
- Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
- Venue: Nippert Stadium
- Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020
- Time: ABC
- TV: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Bet:BetMGM BetRivers FanDuel PointsBet All
AAC Championship Betting Odds
- Spread: Cincinnati -14.5
- Money-Line: Cincinnati -650, Tulsa +475
- Total: 45
Odds Subject to Change
How to Handicap Tulsa vs. Cincinnati
This will be the third time these teams have been scheduled to meet this season. Tulsa was initially supposed to host Cincinnati on October 17, but that game was canceled due to COVID. The game was rescheduled for last week, yet more COVID issues cropped up leading to a second cancellation.
Cincinnati hasn’t played since knocking off UCF 36-33 back on November 21. The Bearcats have been one of the most impressive teams in the country though, winning their first seven games by at least 14 points prior to their first real test of the 2020 season. They are 5-2 ATS against FBS teams and those two ATS losses were by a combined 2.5 points.
The Bearcats were in position to cover the number against UCF. They were up three and had a second-and-goal from UCF’s one-yard line, but Gerrid Doaks decided not to go into the end zone on second down in order to run more time off the clock. Cincinnati was unable to get into the end zone on the next two plays, leading to a UCF cover.
It’s been a miracle season for Tulsa.
The Golden Hurricane have erased four double-digit second half deficits to remain unbeaten since their season opening loss to Oklahoma State. Their most improbable win yet came in their penultimate regular season game as Tulsa defeated Tulane 30-24 in double overtime.
Tulsa lost Zach Smith and Seth Boomer due to injury, forcing Davis Brin to take the reins of this offense. Brin played well, but the Green Wave led 14-0 with 10 minutes left. Brin led the Golden Hurricane back, but it seemed all was lost when Tulane took a 21-14 lead with under 100 seconds to play in the game.
That’s when it became clear that this was truly a miracle season for Tulsa. Brin found JuanCarlos Santana in the end zone on a Hail Mary as time expired to force overtime, and then superstar linebacker Zaven Collins ended the game with a 96-yard interception return for a touchdown.
Corey Taylor and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane will look to upset Cincinnati, covering the spread in six of seven games this year. (AP)
Betting Analysis – Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- 2020: 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS, 2-5 O/U
Smith is healthy and will be under center for Tulsa this Saturday. He wasn’t great in his return against Navy two weeks ago though, completing just 10 of 25 passes for 168 yards with a touchdown. Seth Boomer suffered a season-ending injury earlier this year, so the only other quarterback with experience is Brin.
Shamari Brooks’ season-ending injury deprived Tulsa of its best running back before the 2020 campaign even started. In his place, Deneric Prince, Corey Taylor II, and T.K. Wilkerson have split the load. Prince and Wilkerson are listed as questionable to play this week due to injury, so Taylor could be in line for a heavy workload.
Keylon Stokes leads the Golden Hurricane with 35 receptions for 508 yards and two touchdowns, and Josh Johnson has 35 catches for 484 yards and six touchdowns. Santana and Sam Crawford Jr. have had decent seasons too, but it’s clear that Tulsa only throws to receivers. Tight ends have a total of four receptions in this system, while the three running backs have combined for three receptions.
Tulsa’s defense is ranked in the top 20 in scoring defense (19.9 PPG) and total defense (328.4 YPG). Most of that is due to the play of Collins.
Collins was named AAC Defensive Player of the Year earlier in the week, as he leads the team in tackles (52), sacks (four), interceptions (four), and forced fumbles (two). He is likely to be the first AAC player selected in the 2021 NFL Draft as his combination of size and speed make him an excellent playmaker.
Betting Analysis - Cincinnati Bearcats
- 2020: 8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Desmond Ridder has had a fantastic junior year for the unbeaten Bearcats. Ridder was named AAC Offensive Player of the Year earlier this week.
He has completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 1,821 yards (8.5 YPA) with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions on the season. Ridder is an electric runner with 526 yards (7.9 YPC) and 11 TDs to help make this offense the 23rd best in the country per Bill Connelly’s SP+.
Doaks leads Cincinnati with 660 yards (4.8 YPC) and seven touchdowns. He is a surprisingly nimble back for a player his size, and that has made him a decent receiver out of the backfield too. Charles McClelland is out for the season with a knee injury, but Jerome Ford has done a nice job carrying the load in his stead.
The Bearcats don’t throw the ball much, and they don’t have a true No. 1 receiver. Instead, Cincinnati has five players with between 200 and 300 receiving yards. Tight end Josh Whyle and wide receiver Michael Young Jr. were both Second Team All-AAC selections.
This defense is nasty.
Cincinnati is in the top five in most defensive categories. The Bearcats are allowing just 14.3 PPG and 301.7 YPG, and the pass defense is lights out.
Opponents are averaging just 5.5 YPA against this secondary and three Cincinnati defensive backs (Ahmad Gardner, Coby Bryant, and James Wiggins) were named First Team All-AAC.
Historically Speaking
Head-to-Head
Tulsa is 16-13-1 all-time against Cincinnati, but these teams have only played three times since 1997.
The Bearcats have won two of the three meetings where both teams were part of the AAC, and they have won six of the last seven dating back to 1980.
Last Meeting
The Bearcats took advantage of five Tulsa turnovers to beat the Golden Hurricane 24-13 last year.
Smith completed less than half of his passes and averaged 5.7 YPA, while Ridder was efficient in his role.
Notable Betting Trends
-- Tulsa has covered seven of its last eight games
-- The under is 10-4 in Cincinnati’s last 14 games
-- The under is 16-6 in Tulsa’s last 22 games as an underdog
AAC Championship Predictions
- Score Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Tulsa 10
- Best Bet: Cincinnati
AAC Betting History Results & Notes
| Betting Results - Favorites vs. Underdogs - Total (Over-Under) | ||||||||
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History - Betting Notes
- Memphis has made the most AAC championships (3), but is 1-2 in those games
- UCF has won the most AAC titles (2)
- Home teams are 4-1 in AAC championships
- Tulsa is making first appearance in 2020 edition
| AAC Championship History | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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